Cognitive bias in investigations and how to avoid it

Do you ever kick yourself for not investing your life savings into Bitcoin 10 years ago, when you just had a feeling it would take off?

And have you felt a little smug after a football game or a presidential election because you knew all along what the outcome was going to be. Or maybe you’ve trusted the opinion of someone confident at work and disregarded the opinion of someone quieter but clearly more qualified, only to be left feeling stupid.

Well then, looks like you’ve had a personal encounter with cognitive bias. But don’t worry, you’re not alone. It’s safe to say that everyone on earth has been a victim of cognitive bias – and probably on a daily basis.

What is cognitive bias?

The term cognitive bias refers to a person’s knowledge and way of thinking affecting their perception of information, resulting in them coming to inaccurate conclusions.

There are many different types of cognitive bias that can lead to the illogical interpretation of information, including:

• Stimuli
• Past experiences
• Education
• Cultural expectations
• Organizational norms

These factors can all work to distort our perception of information and, as they are generally applied unconsciously, are almost impossible to eliminate entirely from our thinking. Now, the above examples are relatively harmless, but real problems can arise when cognitive biases creep into more important areas of your life or work.What if that regret for not buying Bitcoin made you remortgage your house to invest in the next big thing, and you ended up losing everything? Or imagine, for example, the potentially disruptive effects of cognitive bias on a criminal investigation, with the wrong person being prosecuted and sent to jail.

In fact, investigations are one of the most important situations where people need to be completely logical, so it’s crucial that investigators do everything they can to eliminate cognitive bias entirely. Well, the good news is that simply being aware of cognitive bias is a very effective way of eliminating it from your thinking. So, in this post, we look at three of the most common forms of bias for investigators, the effects they can have on investigation outcomes, and how to negate these effects.

Common types of cognitive bias

1.

Anchoring

Anchoring describes the tendency for the first piece of information people encounter to influence their perception of further information. For example, an investigator may be inclined to focus excessively on the first lead encountered, even when a stronger lead has emerged. Anchoring can cause investigators to waste time and resources by not following the most logical steps. In some cases, anchoring can even result in missed leads and drawing erroneous conclusions.

2.

Confirmation bias

Everyone has pre-existing beliefs about the world, and it’s very common for people to seek out or put particular emphasis on information that confirms these beliefs. In investigations, this can result in people overlooking important information and failing to make objective decisions. It can be very difficult to identify one’s own susceptibility to confirmation bias, as most people struggle to examine their own beliefs and thinking patterns objectively.

3.

Hindsight bias

As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. When we know the outcome of something, it often seems like it was always obviously going to happen, leading us to believe that other events are just as predictable. In reality, things are rarely easy to predict in advance of the outcome, so this belief can result in overconfidence, poor decision-making, and risk-taking. In an investigation, hindsight bias can cause people to oversimplify things, mistakenly believing that the answer must be predictable based on previous investigations – even in completely unrelated situations.

Ways to prevent cognitive bias in investigations

Cognitive biases are, unfortunately, almost always present to some extent. But to reduce the impact they can have on an investigation, there are a few best practices that anyone can follow:

• Learn about different cognitive biases and what causes them.
• Try to understand your personal susceptibility to certain biases.
• Make all  judgments in a measured and analytical way.
• Ask for other people’s opinions where possible.
• Question every thought and conclusion you have during an investigation.
• Stick to a methodological process to reduce the chance of erroneous thinking.
• Try to examine each case from various perspectives.

By always coming back to these points, you can make sure you’re taking a measured approach.

A new approach to objective investigations

Eliminating confirmation bias from investigations means approaching every case objectively – something that’s easier said than done. Falkor makes objectivity simple. Our revolutionary analytics platform makes storing, categorizing, and visualizing information easy. With all the relevant details in one place and presented in a clear, intuitive way, you can organize complex details and find new connections with ease.

Used by law enforcement agencies, financial institutions, and investigators worldwide, Falkor is transforming the way investigations are run, at both an individual and organizational level. See Falkor in action to learn how it is changing the way investigators work.